What’s your Theory of Success?

When we’re trying to be strategic, isolated decisions rarely make sense.
We're all familiar with the captain's call—a decision no one knows about, contradicts our best efforts, and leaves egg on everyone’s face. How then do we make decisions consistent and effective?

A good place to start is by having a Theory of Success. This concept is useful because it emphasises that any strategic direction is fundamentally a theory. We don't know, and may never know, if our best-laid plans will work. Having a hypothesis, however, allows us to test our decisions each and every day. A Theory of Success makes us look at the big picture first. It makes us think about and then frame the future. By starting broadly, this theory allows us to connect an organisation’s mission and vision to its strategic actions and decisions.

A consistent thread of logic then emerges. We do this but not that, for these reasons. An efficiency of movement results. Teams know why they are doing what they do, and leaders are able to allocate resources with clear reasons. Of course, our Theory of Success should be well-grounded. It could be rational or creative, based on the numbers or a figment of your imagination. Above all else, it should be tested day in and day out. Having a process that allows this to happen is essential.

If a Theory of Success is tested on an ongoing basis and reflected in our decision-making, success is more likely. If, however, we challenge our Theory of Success and it proves wanting, then change is possible. The approach’s strength lies in its flexibility. Does your organisation have a Theory of Success?

An Example in Practice: Green Friends' "Green Gardening"

To illustrate how a Theory of Success works in practice, let's look at Green Friends, an organisation committed to sustainability. Their Theory of Success is built around "Green Gardening"—the idea of transitioning entirely to 100% organic practices. This isn't just a tagline; it's a guiding principle that influences every strategic decision.

At the start, Green Friends articulated their Theory of Success by aligning it with their mission to become environmental stewards. To translate this into actionable strategy, they utilised decision papers—a structured approach to decision-making that helps ensure all choices align with their overarching Theory of Success.

Using Decision Papers to Test and Refine the Theory

For Green Friends, each major decision required to move towards "Green Gardening" began with a decision paper. These decision papers are comprehensive documents that examine the options available, the potential impacts, and how these align or conflict with their Theory of Success. Here's how this process unfolded:

1. Identifying Key Decisions: The first step was to identify critical decisions that would drive their green transformation. Decisions like adopting organic fertilisers, reducing water usage, or introducing new customer engagement strategies were flagged as key areas needing strategic clarity.
2. Creating Decision Papers: For each identified decision, a decision paper was created. For example, when deciding whether to switch to 100% organic fertilisers, the decision paper outlined various options—ranging from complete replacement to phased introduction. It assessed each option’s impact on operations, supply chain management, costs, and customer perception. Importantly, it also evaluated how well each option aligned with the "Green Gardening" Theory of Success.
3. Testing and Adapting the Theory: After implementing the chosen strategies, Green Friends didn't just move on. They tested the outcomes against their Theory of Success. Did the new organic fertilisers not only reduce environmental impact but also maintain or improve product quality? Were customers responding positively to the change? These questions were answered through continual monitoring and feedback loops documented in the decision papers.
4. Adjusting the Strategy as Needed: When a decision didn’t yield the desired results or contradicted the "Green Gardening" Theory of Success, Green Friends were prepared to adapt. For instance, they discovered that while the initial shift to organic fertilisers was well-received, it required more staff training than anticipated. This led to a new decision paper focused on additional staff development and training initiatives to ensure the success of the transition.

The Result: Consistent, Informed Decision-Making

By following this process, Green Friends ensured that each decision—big or small—supported their "Green Gardening" Theory of Success. This approach helped them maintain consistency across all strategic actions, from supply chain management to marketing strategies, and ensured that every decision was well-grounded and tested. The decision papers provided the flexibility to adapt their strategy as new information emerged, helping them stay true to their mission while navigating the complexities of organisational change.